The long road to Brazil 2014 starts next Friday for nine hopefuls in South America. First, let’s review the format for qualifying in South America (CONMEBOL). The format for CONMEBOL's 2014 World Cup qualifying tournament is identical to the previous four editions. All CONMEBOL national teams will play against each other twice on a home-and-away basis in a single group for 4.5 spots in Brazil 2014. The top four teams will automatically qualify to the finals. The fifth-placed team will compete in a play-off against the fifth-placed team from Asia’s World Cup qualifying tournament. The order of matches is identical to that of the 2006 and 2010 tournaments. Since Brazil has qualified automatically as the host nation, one team will have a bye on the date they would normally be scheduled to play Brazil.
Ok, not that the formalities are out of the way, it is fair to say that there are two teams that seem like locks to qualify: Argentina and current Copa America winners Uruguay. After this, it is a wide open field. Paraguay and Chile seem to be frontrunners for the remaining two automatic spots, but Copa America surprise Peru look to have their best chance in almost 30 years to make a run at an automatic spot, or at least the play-off against an Asian qualifier. Also in the running is an Ecuador side which is a always a tough puzzle to solve in the altitude of Quito, and region Cinderella Venezuela. Colombia will look to get back to the marquee event for the first time since 2002, and are led by Atletico Madrid star Radamel Falcao Garcia. The only team which seems to be a long shot is Bolivia. Although they always cause problems when playing at home in La Paz, they usually are easy prey outside of the friendly confines of the Hernando Siles Stadium.
We will preview the games for match day 1 which will be played on Friday October 7th. Previews for match day 2 on October 11th will be previewed by Saturday. On to the games: (home team listed in CAPS)
URUGUAY vs. Bolivia
Referee: Víctor Hugo Carrillo (PER)
Assistant # 1: Luis Avila (PER)
Assistant # 2: César Escano (PER)
4th Official: Henry Gambetta (PER)
This is most likely the easiest game to predict. Uruguay is the reigning Copa America champions and will prove to be too much for a limited Bolivia squad. The Bolivians pulled off an early surprise in their Copa America debut by holding Argentina to a 1-1 deadlock, and even held a 1-0 late in the match. However, “El Centenario” in Uruguay is one of the most difficult and intimidating places to play in the region. Napoli standout Edison Cavani is in top form and has scored 6 goals in 6 appearances in all competitions for the Serie A squad. He will partner up front with Inter Milan star Diego Forlan to form on of the most potent tandems in South America. Bolivia will need a standout performance from Colon of Argentina veteran defender Ronald Raldes to have any chance of keeping this game close. Up front, Shakhtar Donetsk striker Marcelo Martins will most likely be the lone man up front and the only chance Bolivia will have to putting a scare into the Uruguayans, but do not hold your breath on that.
Prediction: Uruguay 3- Bolivia 0
ECUADOR vs. Venezuela
Referee: Enrique Osses (CHI)
Assistant # 1: Patricio Basualto (CHI)
Assistant # 2: Julio Diaz (CHI)
4th Official: Patricio Polic (CHI)
Ecuador missed out on South Africa 2010 after consecutive appearances in 2002 and 2006. Their form has dipped since 2006 and their performance Copa America this past summer was lackluster to say the least. Ecuador will be led by Manchester United starlet Antonio Valencia and a brigade of players who ply their trade in the Mexican First Division: Cristian Benitez, Cristian Suarez, Jaime Ayovi, Michael Arroyo, and Walter Ayovi. Another huge advantage for Ecuador will be playing in the altitude of Quito, where even the best teams have trouble adapting to the thin air. Venezuela comes off their best performance ever in a Copa America. They placed forth in the continental event, and look to have a legitimate shot grabbing a spot in Brazil 2014. Venezuela will be led in the back by Deportivo Lara (Ven) defender Jose Manuel Rey. He is a veteran of the squad and will give Ecuador headaches on set pieces. Luis Manuel Seijas (Standard Liege- Bel) will lead a technically gifted midfield which will try to keep possession of the ball and look to steal a point in Ecuador. Coach Cesar Farias has selected a squad which has been especially selected to play in altitude and a separate squad will travel to Argentina days later for match day 2. This strategy worked for Venezuela last qualifiers when they pulled off a shock 1-0 victory in La Paz, Bolivia. Expect them to get a result here as well.
Prediction: Ecuador 1 – Venezuela 1
ARGENTINA vs. CHILE
Referee: Wilmar Roldan (COL)
1st Assistant: Abraham Gonzalez (COL)
2nd Assistant: Humberto Clavijo(COL)
4th Official: José Buitrago (COL)
Argentina come off a disappointing Copa America on home soil and will face a tough challenge from Chile to open qualifying. Chile will be without all-world playmaker Alexis Sanchez for the first two match days, but still have enough firepower to beat anyone in the world on any given day. The midfield will be in charge of playmakers Matias Fernandez (Sporting-Portugal) and Jorge Valdivia (Palmeiras- Brazil) who will look to link up with lethal striker Humberto Suazo (Monterrey-Mexico). Chile recently put a scare into Spain in a FIFA date friendly, as the game ended in a 2-2 draw. The Chileans had a 2-0 lead before Spain was able to scratch out a tie on a dubious penalty call at the end. Although many are down on Argentina, and their form has been mediocre at best since the World cup, they still posses the best player in the world in Lionel Messi. All Argentina needs is the “10” to wave his wand and magic happens on the field. Having said that, these magical moments have been few and far between from Messi, and this World Cup cycle could be his last chance to stamp his name with the national team. Rodrigo Palacio (Genoa- Italy) has been is spectacular form as has been midfield playmaker Ever Banegas (Valencia-Spain). This should prove to be the best match of the day, and also should create the most scoring chances. There is not much that separates these two teams, and the final score will indicate that.
Prediction: Argentina 2 – Chile 2
PERÚ vs. Paraguay
Referee: Sergio Pezzotta (ARG)
1st Assistant: Ricardo Casas (ARG)
2nd Assistant: Hernán Maidana (ARG)
4th Official: Diego Abal (BRA)
The last game of match day 1 will be held at the newly renovated Estadio Nacional in Lima, Peru. Peru will look to ride the wave of their 3rd place finish in Copa America to their first World Cup since 1982. Their front line will be led by strikers Claudio Pizarro (Werder Bremen-Germany) and Paolo Guerrero (Hamburger- Germany). Pizarro in particular has been in good form for his club and Peru will lean on him to bring the same goal scoring touch with him to Lima. Peru are suspect in net where they will go with Raul Fernandez (Nice-France) who has had little playing time with his club team. Paraguay are odds on favorites to grab one of the four automatic spots to Brazil 2014. The Copa America finalists will use their rugged and defensive style game to frustrate most of their opponents. Roque Santa Cruz (Real Betis- Spain) should prove a handful to a weak Peruvian backline as should speedy Rubin Kazan forward Nelson Haedo Valdez. Rugged defenders Paolo Da Silva (Real Zaragoza-Spain) and Dario Veron (UNAM-Mexico) will be in charge of stopping Claudio Pizarro and co. At the end, the home crowd should see the home team through to the full three points.
Prediction: Peru 2 – Paraguay 1
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